President Biden declared the fall of Assad’s regime as a “historic opportunity” for Syria, but he tempered his words with caution, acknowledging the monumental risks and uncertainties that lay ahead. The swift and unexpected victory of Islamist rebels, who achieved in weeks what global powers, including the U.S., failed to do over the years, has left Syria fractured and unstable. Assad’s family, once the face of authoritarian rule, fled to Russia, but now the world is left wondering: What happens next?

The victorious rebels, although celebrated for their military triumph, are a deeply divided force. The leading faction, Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), traces its origins to notorious terrorist groups like Al Qaeda and ISIS. Despite their claims of reform, HTS’s extremist roots and continued U.S. terrorist designation complicate any future dealings with them. This raises the unsettling prospect that the new rulers of Syria could be just as ruthless as the regime they overthrew.

Syria’s future is now a battleground of competing factions, each with its own ambitions. While HTS may have led the charge against Assad, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Turkish-backed groups are also vying for control, leading to clashes across the country. Meanwhile, Israel, which has long feared Assad's ties to Iran, is cautiously relieved but uneasy about the rise of Islamist groups on its borders.

The power shift is not only a domestic issue but also a regional one, shaking the long-standing alliances that held the Assad regime in place. Russia and Iran, once Assad’s strongest backers, are now facing their own crises, weakening their influence in Syria. As a result, the balance of power in the Middle East is shifting, with Turkey now poised to increase its influence, filling the vacuum left by Russia and Iran.

Despite the uncertainty, the U.S. is not stepping away. With Syria’s infrastructure in ruins and millions displaced, the need for humanitarian aid is urgent. However, there are also grave concerns about Assad’s weapons stockpiles, including chemical arms, which could fall into the hands of extremists. This looming threat casts a shadow over any plans for rebuilding Syria or restoring peace.

The power vacuum in Syria has also reignited fears of extremist groups like ISIS regaining a foothold. As the U.S. continues to monitor the situation, the question of how to manage the risks posed by these groups, as well as the political future of Syria, remains unanswered. The U.S. is also concerned with the protection of minorities in Syria—groups like the Alawites, Kurds, and Christians, who fear reprisals from the Sunni-majority rebels.

Meanwhile, HTS’s leader, Ahmed Sharaa, has tried to portray his group as more moderate, promising a transition to a state of governance and even suggesting the possibility of disbanding the group once victory was achieved. However, this promise of a peaceful transition seems more like a hopeful fantasy than a likely reality. In a region where power is rarely relinquished voluntarily, it remains to be seen whether HTS will truly embrace governance or hold onto the power it has so violently seized.

The Assad regime, which began in 1970 under Bashar’s father, Hafez Assad, was built on repression, torture, and a brutal intelligence network that controlled the Syrian people through fear. The Arab Spring protests of 2011 ignited a brutal crackdown, spiraling into a civil war that left hundreds of thousands dead. Despite military assistance from Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, Assad’s power remained unshaken—until now. But with Russia distracted by its own war in Ukraine, Iran under pressure from both internal dissent and external threats, and Hezbollah weakened by Israeli attacks, Assad’s once-impregnable regime has crumbled.

Now, with Assad gone, the future of Syria hangs in the balance. Will the new leaders embrace peace and inclusion, or will they perpetuate the same cycle of violence and repression? As the region watches closely, the road to Syria’s recovery seems uncertain, and the world is left wondering: Can Syria finally break free from decades of brutal rule, or will it descend into deeper turmoil?