The election, held on January 9, 2025, not only ended a two-year presidential vacuum but also exposed the militant group’s weakening hold over Lebanon, as shifting regional dynamics leave it increasingly isolated and vulnerable.

Hezbollah’s Empire Crumbles

For decades, Hezbollah ruled Lebanon with an iron fist, its massive arsenal dwarfing the national army and its influence permeating every corner of the government. But now, the group’s empire is falling apart. A grueling 14-month war with Israel has left Hezbollah battered, while the collapse of its ally Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has stripped it of crucial regional support. Even its key patron, Iran, is struggling to maintain influence as the Middle East undergoes seismic changes.

The election of Joseph Aoun, a military leader known for his independence, directly challenges Hezbollah’s authority. In an unexpected turn, even Hezbollah and its Shiite ally, the Amal Movement, backed Aoun after their preferred candidate, Suleiman Frangieh, withdrew from the race. This move highlights just how far Hezbollah’s power has diminished.

A New Lebanon Emerges

Aoun’s victory marks a triumph for those who have long sought to free Lebanon from Hezbollah’s suffocating control. In his inaugural speech, Aoun boldly declared that only the state would hold the power of force—an unmistakable challenge to Hezbollah’s private army. His words sent a clear message: Lebanon is no longer a playground for militias and foreign powers.

This election is historic. For the first time since Lebanon’s civil war ended in 1990, a president has been chosen without the blessing of Iran or Syria. This moment signifies the end of an era dominated by Hezbollah’s unchecked power and marks the beginning of a new chapter in Lebanon’s pursuit of sovereignty.

The Fall of a Regional Power

Hezbollah’s decline is not just a domestic issue—it is part of a broader regional shift. The group’s disastrous war with Israel revealed its limitations, while the collapse of its alliance with Assad in Syria left it isolated. Iran, Hezbollah’s main backer, is also feeling the pressure, as its influence in the region wanes under mounting pressure from Israel and its allies.

The election also signals Saudi Arabia’s return to the Lebanese stage. After years of being sidelined by Hezbollah and Iran, Riyadh played a pivotal role in facilitating Aoun’s election, signaling a dramatic shift in regional power dynamics. With Saudi Arabia, the United States, and France supporting Aoun, Lebanon now has an opportunity to rebuild its ties with both the West and the Arab world.

The Road Ahead: A Fight for Survival

However, Lebanon’s struggles are far from over. Aoun inherits a country in ruins, devastated by war, economic collapse, and political paralysis. The World Bank estimates that the conflict with Israel caused $8.5 billion in damages, pushing Lebanon’s economy to the brink.

Aoun’s biggest challenge will be addressing Hezbollah’s disarmament—a contentious issue that has divided the country for decades. While Hezbollah is weakened, it remains a potent force. The group still commands the loyalty of Lebanon’s Shiite population and retains significant military capabilities. Aoun’s plan to establish a national defense strategy that sidelines Hezbollah will face fierce resistance, setting the stage for a high-stakes political battle.

A Turning Point for Lebanon

Lebanon’s election of Joseph Aoun as president is more than a political milestone—it is a declaration of independence from Hezbollah’s shadow. For the first time in decades, there is hope that Lebanon might finally reclaim its sovereignty and chart its own course.

But the battle is far from over. Hezbollah may be down, but it is far from out. As Lebanon enters this new era, the world will be watching closely to see if Aoun can fulfill his promises—or if Hezbollah will rise again to reclaim its power. One thing is certain: Lebanon’s future hangs in the balance, and the stakes have never been higher.